# VAR in the Liga: penalties, cards and fouls before and after > Effect of VAR in the Liga (2014-18 vs 2018-22): penalties, red cards, yellows and fouls per match across the whole Liga, with a permutation test. Source: https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/ Study # VAR in the Liga Did the arrival of VAR change how Liga referees whistle? - 2014-18 vs 2018-22 - 9,880 matches - Updated on 3 October 2026 - [Method](https://elcolegiado.com/methodology/) ## Key takeaways - Penalties / match: **0.290 → 0.364** (+26%) between 2014-18 and 2018-22, p = 0.001. [See](https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/#mesures) - Reds / match: **0.243 → 0.216** (−11%) between 2014-18 and 2018-22, p = 0.14. [See](https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/#mesures) - Yellows / match: **5.14 → 4.98** (−3%) between 2014-18 and 2018-22, p = 0.05. [See](https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/#mesures) - Fouls / match: **27.8 → 26.9** (−3%) between 2014-18 and 2018-22, p = 0.001. [See](https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/#mesures) - VAR arrives in 2018-19, the same season the payments end. [See](https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/#limites) Penalties / match **Effect of VAR** Whole-Liga average, four seasons before against four seasons after the arrival of VAR. VAR arrives the same season the payments end. 2014-18 0.290 2018-22 0.364 +26% · p (permutation) = 0.001 Reds / match **Effect of VAR** Whole-Liga average, four seasons before against four seasons after the arrival of VAR. VAR arrives the same season the payments end. 2014-18 0.243 2018-22 0.216 −11% · p (permutation) = 0.14 Yellows / match **Effect of VAR** Whole-Liga average, four seasons before against four seasons after the arrival of VAR. VAR arrives the same season the payments end. 2014-18 5.14 2018-22 4.98 −3% · p (permutation) = 0.05 Fouls / match **Effect of VAR** Whole-Liga average, four seasons before against four seasons after the arrival of VAR. VAR arrives the same season the payments end. 2014-18 27.8 2018-22 26.9 −3% · p (permutation) = 0.001 **Main limitation:** VAR arrives the same season the payments end (2018-19): this study cannot separate the two effects. [All limitations](https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/#limites) ## Penalties / match, whole Liga By season; the dotted line marks the arrival of VAR **Penalties / match, whole Liga** Change by season. Hover over a point for the exact value. The dotted line marks the arrival of VAR. 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 VAR 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26 ## Reds / match, whole Liga By season; the dotted line marks the arrival of VAR **Reds / match, whole Liga** Change by season. Hover over a point for the exact value. The dotted line marks the arrival of VAR. 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 VAR 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26 ## Yellows / match, whole Liga By season; the dotted line marks the arrival of VAR **Yellows / match, whole Liga** Change by season. Hover over a point for the exact value. The dotted line marks the arrival of VAR. 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 VAR 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26 ## Fouls / match, whole Liga By season; the dotted line marks the arrival of VAR **Fouls / match, whole Liga** Change by season. Hover over a point for the exact value. The dotted line marks the arrival of VAR. 20 25 30 35 40 VAR 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26 ## Limitations **Limitations** What these figures cannot tell us. - VAR arrives the same season the payments end (2018-19): this study cannot separate the two effects. - 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons: matches behind closed doors, which may also change behaviour. - Comparison of whole-Liga averages, four seasons before against four seasons after; p computed by permuting the seasons. - Fouls are only available from 2005-06. ## Definitions **Expected points** Before each match, the bookmakers' odds give the probability of a win, a draw and a defeat. Expected points = 3 × P(win) + P(draw). A positive deviation means the club took more points than the market predicted. Because the team's strength is already built into the odds, a big club has no "automatic" positive deviation. **q-value** With hundreds of comparisons, some look extreme by chance. The Benjamini-Hochberg correction accounts for this: a deviation is only called notable if q < 0.05. Otherwise: inconclusive. Inconclusive does not mean "no effect": with 11 matches, only a deviation of about ±1.57 points per match could have been detected. **Difference-in-differences** We measure the club's change between two periods, then subtract the change of a comparison group over the same periods. What remains is the change specific to the club. **Strength-adjusted measures** Each match is compared with Liga matches from the same season, at the same venue type (home/away) and between teams of comparable strength according to the odds. A positive value is favourable to the club. [Details in the methodology →](https://elcolegiado.com/methodology/) ## Cite this page El Colegiado, "VAR in the Liga: penalties, cards and fouls before and after", https://elcolegiado.com/studies/var/ (data updated on 3 October 2026).